Behind Turkey’s Actions in Syria: A Fear of Waning Influence

 
The Turkish offensive against the Kurds that has brought Turkey to the brink of conflict with the U.S. comes as the country is fighting to preserve its leverage in a fractured Syria.

Ankara has much to be concerned about. The Syrian Kurds, allied with the U.S., have been expanding their presence on Turkey’s border. Russia and Iran, allied with Syria’s Assad regime, have been making deep inroads in Syria. And the Syrian rebels allied with Turkey appear to be losing their fight in a final stand in northwestern Syria.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is particularly worried about the main Syrian Kurdish militia, known as the YPG, who he views as terrorists. Determined to prevent them from forming a semiautonomous statelet in northern Syria, Mr. Erdogan has whipped up nationalist support at home and launched an offensive against the Kurdish-controlled enclave of Afrin. He has vowed to move on to another Syrian city, Manbij, where Kurds are based with U.S. forces.

The threat has prompted a flurry of meetings at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and between U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Mr. Erdogan. The two pledged on Friday to begin working through their differences over Syria and other tensions.Turkey entered the war in 2011, backing and training rebels bent on bringing down Bashar al-Assad. But as the conflict shifted from an uprising against his dynastic rule to a bloody war drawing in several world powers, the country has become increasingly marginalized.

Last year, Turkey, Russia and Iran agreed to uphold deconfliction zones aiming to reduce violence. For Turkey, “strategically, the goal is to keep a toe in the Syrian waters and the peace process,” said Joost Hiltermann, program director for International Crisis Group.

Yet in Idlib, part of the deconfliction area, Russian planes are now helping the Assad regime bomb rebels, some of whom are supported by Turkey.

The Russian intervention in 2015, in particular, helped isolate Turkey, said Mr. Hiltermann. Russia, a much bigger military, became a crucial force in backing up the Assad regime.

Source: Wsj News